Demystifying,The,Radically,Dif marketing Demystifying The Radically Different Keyword Results Provide

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Demystifying The Radically Different Keyword Results Provided ByOverture and Wordtracker...because your online success depends on getting accuratekeyword counts!Part 3- by Robin Nobles (Continued from Part 2. Contact [email protected] the complete article.)Finally: Making sense of the numbers (here comes the shock). Ok, now that you understand the artificial skew and thealternatives that can correct for it, let's move on to analyzethe numbers given by Overture's STST and Wordtracker's keywordselection service (KSS) using the search term(s) keyword(s). An in depth look at Overture's STST numbers... Overture's STST shows 180,468 searches were conducted. Thisrepresents the combined count of the search terms keyword,keywords, Keywords, KEYWORD and KEYWORDS - the combined total ofall singular, plural, capitalized, upper and lower-case searches.When we divide Overture's count (180,468) by 30 (becauseOverture's figures are for a 30-day period), the inference isthere are 6,016 searches per day that meet this criteria. Inactuality, they receive just 40-60 per day total (are we shockedyet?). Here's how we're crunching the numbers. Fact: Overture's STST suggests a combined average of 6,016 pageviews took place between Overture and its major partners - e.g.AltaVista, Yahoo, and others - each day for the month of December'03. We're referring to search result pages like:http://search.yahoo.com/search?p=keywords&ei=UTF-8&fr=fp-tab-web-t&cop=mss&tab= Fact: Each of these results pages lists between 10 and 40 URLswith descriptions. Factor in Zipf's Law which predicts that traffic for anyparticular keyword on a search engine will be proportional to itspopularity rank. Factor in how the title and description affect a user'spropensity to click on a Web site. Factor in the Penn State University's findings that 55% of userscheck out one search result only, and 80% stop after looking atthree results. Factor in known elements leading to an estimated, but educated,conclusion as such... Since it's a fact that Wordtracker's Web site appears in the top-ten of Overture's results throughout their partner realm, theyshould be getting a guesstimateed 10% of the overall click-throughs from all major engines, pay-per-clicks, and directories.That would equate to about 602 visitors per day. However, Wordtracker is currently ranked 1-10 on only about 25%of the major engines, directories and pay-per-click portals forthe search term, keyword(s)... Calculate the estimate... ...therefore, the Wordtracker site should expect roughly 25% ofthis predicted click-through traffic, which is 150 visitors perday. Compare calculated estimate to known facts... In fact, Wordtracker receives 10 - 15 visitors per day for thesearch term(s) keyword(s). In fact, Overture's STST overestimatesthis search query by a factor of 10. Furthermore, since Wordtracker is estimating they receiveapproximately 25% of the total traffic then that would put thetotal traffic generated at 40 to 60 per day (25% of 40 to 60 = 10to 15 visitors a day). In fact, Overture's STST overestimates the total search querycount by a factor of 100 ...based on 6,016 being more than 100times greater than the 40 to 60 figure suggested by Wordtracker'sactual visitors. Experience shock and awe at the difference between the numbers! Wordtracker's service provides very different numbers... Using the same search term(s) keyword(s), we pulled arepresentative result from the Wordtracker database (on January13, 2004) that predicts searches per day conducted throughout themajor engines, directories and pay-per-clicks on the Internet.The results were... keyword - 93 searches (lower case, singular) Keyword - 39 searches (Capitalized, singular) keywords - 187 searches (lower case, plural) Keywords - 184 searches (Capitalized, plural) KEYWORD - 115 searches (UPPER case, singular) Total Predicted Daily Searches for all Engines = 618This figure - 618 - Wordtracker compiled directly from resultstaken from Meta-engines, Metacrawler and Dogpile in order toeliminate the artificial skew. Wordtracker further adjusted the number downward by filtering outkeyword spam (as defined above) based upon a proprietary formulaused to identify search terms that are being searched atintervals too regular to have been conducted by actual humans. These suspiciously regular and assumed to be artificiallygenerated searches are therefore discounted in arriving at thefinal number - 618. Even when taking into account such dependent variables such asposition, title, and description, we would expect (logicallyguesstimate) the website to receive about 10% of the totaltraffic due to top-ten placement, targeted title and relevantlink-description. And finally, we should expect no better than 25% of that totaltraffic, due to the fact that Wordtracker has top-ten placementin only 25% of the relevant engines.So the calculations show... 618 x 10% = 61.8 x 25% = approx 15 visits per day. This is more in line with Wordtracker's actual 10-15 per dayaverage number of visits generated by the 5 variations of thesearch term keyword across all of the major engines.So, whose numbers should we trust? When it comes to trusting the numbers, you should take intoaccount what you are using them for. If you're looking todetermine relative popularity of a given item, service, topic, orcategory, then Overture's STST can fill the bill nicely - and forfree! For instance, Overture's STST returns the following numbers forthe following searches... 58,312 home insurance 57,315 home owner insurance 233,854 auto insurance 570,337 car insurance This tells us (for free) that car insurance gets about twice asmany searches as auto insurance. It also tells us that homeinsurance gets about the same number of searches as home ownerinsurance ...and that searches for car insurance is TEN timesmore popular than home owner insurance. No doubt about it, when researching what to sell online, this isvaluable preliminary information that Overture's STST providesfor free. However, based upon what we now know about artificial skew, we'dwant to get a third-party-review of the search terms - one thatadjusted the numbers for skew - before we bought advertising on apay-per-click engine or spent good time and money optimizing asite for organic (think Google) Web search results. After all, if Overture shows 6,016 "hits" per day out of whichWordtracker is experiencing 15 visitors, then reality suggests weshould do the math (i.e., apply the information) that distillsthe raw numbers into useful data. Let's first decide if "15"visitors per day will pay the advertising bill (duh!) ...and, ifthe reality count is anywhere near 6,016, we'll be ecstatic,right? Always remember it's the amateurs that believe optimisticallyromanced numbers just before they lose their wallets on the wayto bankruptcy. Professional marketers learn to err on thedownside of expectations and then smile when the pleasantsurprises shower down riches. They know that nothing beats accurate information - the mostpowerful marketing tool on earth. Article Tags: Radically Different Keyword, Different Keyword Results, Keyword Results Provided, Fact Overture's Stst, Radically Different, Different Keyword, Keyword Results, Results Provided, Artificial Skew, Overture's Stst, Term(s Keyword(s, Search Terms, Fact Overture's