英国论坛
伦敦房市的火爆大家都看得到感觉得到,英国其它地方也在回暖。
最近Surveyor的行会Rics(Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors )的调查结果,认为房价还要继续涨的surveyor的比例是14年来最高的,Rics认为房价还要猛涨(surging ahead)。同时搞房贷的银行的行会CML(Council of Mortgage Lenders)说房贷在增长而且预测明年还会增长,但CML认为房价暴涨的可能性不大,2013年的房贷数是£170bn,2014预测£195bn,2015预测£206bn,看起来很多而且在增加,但和2007年的高峰 £363bn比还差很多的。
英国的中央银行(Bank of England)行长Mark Carney说中央银行担心房市的潜在泡沫,需要避免这个问题出现,BoE前久已经说央行不再支持房贷市场了,那央行会采取什么措施来避免房市泡沫出现,大家来预测一下。
1。提高基本利率。这个措施当然对贷款的压制效果会很好,但感觉可能性不大。提高基本利率影响层面太大,虽然英国经济开始好转但还是非常weak,提高基本利率可能会把经济的复苏给扼杀掉,2015年要大选现在政府的目标是经济复苏减少失业率,Boy George肯定不愿意看到任何影响经济复苏的措施,另外刚上任不久的Mark Carney肯定也想做出点“政迹”来。
2。央行一方面给各商业银行“政策性指导”,另外一方面减少给商业银行发放用于房贷的资金。
感觉减少给商业银行发放用于房贷的资金的可能性比较大而且好像已经开始动作,商业银行资金减少了那能够发放的贷款就减少了,那他们会怎么办?肯定放贷条件会变的严格了,现在基本利率低所以用affordability算都可以贷很多,利率不变的话affordability也就不会变化,商业银行很可能会提高首付的比例,就是说90%,80%的mortgage可能没有了,但这就和Boy George的help to buy矛盾了,很难办。如果真的是提高首付的比例对很多中国人有好处啊,因为很多都有父母支持首付,英国人父母也会支持孩子首付但支持的力度和热情没有中国人高啊。
英国这个房市关键问题是伦敦和英国其它大部分地方差别太大,伦敦猛涨可其它很多地方不动,如果对房市下猛药那对其它地方房市打击太大了,这和中国一样北京房价猛涨可其它地方也得陪同调控。 不知道有没有办法对伦敦房市和其它地方区别对待啊。
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25306584
Bank of England governor Mark Carney has said he is concerned about the “potential” for a UK housing market bubble, but will tighten lending requirements if necessary.
“There is a history in the housing market of moving from stall speed to warp speed,” Mr Carney said. “We want to avoid that.”
Meanwhile, a survey suggested house prices will continue “surging ahead”.
A separate forecast said borrowing would rise.
Mr Carney was speaking at the Economic Club of New York.
His speech came as the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) found that more surveyors expected prices to rise than at any time in the last 14 years. The last time such a clear majority of surveyors expected price rises was in September 1999.
A separate forecast by mortgage lenders predicted that borrowing would keep increasing in 2014. But the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) added an “unbridled” housing boom was “unlikely”.
“It’s no secret that the housing market is on the way up and prices are surging ahead in many parts of the country,” said Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist for Rics.
Meanwhile, the CML is predicting that gross mortgage lending will rise from £170bn in 2013, to £195bn next year, reaching £206bn in 2015. In its forecast a year ago, the CML had predicted that mortgage lending would actually fall next year.
But the forecasts suggest that lending will still fall a long way short of the boom years. In 2007, gross lending amounted to £363bn. In the years after 2015, the CML said it believes that housing market activity “may well ease back of its own accord”.
Analysts say this might happen if the Bank of England raises interest rates, since mortgages would become more expensive.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), an independent watchdog, has said it expects a rate rise to happen sometime in 2015, when it is anticipated that UK unemployment will fall to 7%.
The Bank of England has said it would not consider raising interest rates until the unemployment rate hits this key target. The CML has said it believes most borrowers will be able to handle any such increase.
“We think there are good grounds to be optimistic that the vast majority of households will cope with a slow but certain transition to more normal interest rates,” said Bob Pannell, the CML’s chief economist.
Rics said the decision to end the Bank of England’s support for mortgages under a scheme for banks called Funding for Lending (FLS) would also have an impact in slowing the market down.
But it believes mortgages are likely to remain relatively cheap for a while to come.
“The improvement in wholesale and retail funding markets may mean the impact on mortgages is relatively limited,” said Mr Rubinsohn.
The OBR expects house prices to rise by 5.2% in 2014, and 7.2% in 2015.
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西方政客的行业特点是没有commitment的。这位行长跟政客无异,只是为了留个口日后说房子泡沫跟他无关。
我活了五十年了,信他?那我白活了。
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他怎么说都没用,问题是在市场,市场相信与否决定了价格的走势,打个比方,市场上一直传闻英国央行要不久就要加息,无论各央行要员出来怎么说不会加息都没有用
楼市泡沫不能说没有,至少不是太大的问题,毕竟很多都是被海外投资者买了之后投资用的,而对海外投资人收capital gain是作为防范楼市泡沫破灭的政策指引的开始,所以在未来一年的时间,应该会出现一些房子的抛售,这些房子应该是来自投机人,而不是投资者,至于房价可能会回落一些,但是中长期看来还是要涨的,毕竟经济复苏已经摆在那里了
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今天已经出手买了一套, 等泡沫的时候给卖了{:2_35:}
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选2, 不知怎么提交不了。
顶一下, 很好的话题, 不过对我没用,我是刚需啊。贵贱都得买啊
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房子得升啊,人太多,房太少。
不过说什么都是浮云。我们这些小市民,只能看那些个大佬们把房市股市玩弄在股掌之间而无能为力啊!
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HELP TO BUY一切,应该能冷不少, “兴奋计”吃多了终究对身体有坏处。
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伦敦,牛剑会继续温热,确切的说大学城就没冷过
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我感觉就算有政策性调整也是会定在2015年大选前的说,因为现在经济在复苏,政府不会出什么实际的动作去打压房价,因为这样肯定会对复苏不利,可是为了安抚买不起房子的选民,他们也肯定会开个空头支票给他们,让他们看到希望,但是至于兑现不兑现就要看2015年会不会连任了。
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赞成区别对待:L
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正是经济复苏期。 央行不太可能动货币政策。
但Mark Carney挺重视金融稳定的问题还有所谓的macro-prudential policy。 个人觉得那是为什么英国央行找他。 所以他提出房市问题严重性是很正常的。
个人觉得短期区域政策还比较有可能出效果。 比如加大伦敦地区房货难度,提高首付之类的。 伦敦工作有london allowance。 没理由不能有区别对待的政策。
长期来说只能缩小其它区域和伦敦的差别。 泡沫也不是到处飞的。 伦敦房市出现泡沫是多方面的原因, 包括投资房的原因。 但需求却是最最基础的drive。
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价格还是再涨,供不应求。
发送自苹果论坛手机版: m..com
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原来是一年前的老贴。
不过今天仍然适用。
伦敦或英国房市都不取决于金融政策或政府政策调控,主要是市场说话,市场主要看供需,看海外投资,利率对市场小有影响,伦敦的housing crisis 来四年年都不会有明显改观,因为人口增长远大于供给。
所以,有钱趁早买房,只买伦敦。。。