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虽然大家对于退欧留欧各有看法,但是在政府否决了再次公投请愿以后,这件事最后微弱的0.1%的希望也没有了。
也许退欧对于英国也是一个机会,但是毕竟,英国是第一个离开欧盟的第一个掀桌子的人,以德法为主的欧盟,是肯定要设法煞一煞英国的威风的。
会不会欧盟对英国采取报复性的策略?没有GLOBALIZATION这个大旗,会不会导致生活中明面上的种族歧视?毕竟,即使拿了BRITISH CITIZEN的护照,直观上看,黄皮肤黑眼睛的华人就是个异族人。说的那个一点,从血统上来看,东欧人种和英国主体的央克鲁萨克逊人还更接近。
前几天听说院里一个老师将要正式离开,目的地是——都柏林圣三一大学。
听告诉我消息的人说起来,这个老师的新工作新地点,让周围的人都好生羡慕,甚至蠢蠢欲动。
因为没有在爱尔兰生活的经验,想与各位版友讨论,在退欧之后,爱尔兰,尤其是都柏林,会不会因为ENGLISH SPEAKING COUNTRY, EU member替代一部分伦敦的地位?
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UP UP UP 大家踊跃发言
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爱尔兰的经济自从08年以后就不怎么好。。。虽然工资还挺高,但是天气实在是太糟了。。。嗯,比英国糟糕的天气还糟。。。歧视哪里都有,说真话,感觉跟退不退关系不大。哪怕像澳洲那样的移民国家,一样有歧视呀。
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这得看英国怎么退法,理性的对英国最有利的方式退或者是不顾一切的退。
大公司relocation太贵了,因为情况不明确现在大家都是wait and see。
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公司来自北爱的同事说过,都柏林生活虽然没有伦敦那么贵,但生活费用很不低。
之前Remain campaigner经常说Ireland近几年GDP增幅大,但他们似乎都没有提到之前金融危机时那边的情况有多惨,好奇的可以看看BBC的Stacey Dooley在12年时的纪录片Coming Here Soon,大批的年轻人都要背井离乡去欧洲澳洲加拿大等地找工作
http://www.youtube.com/v/FLhAUuwGe3A
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英国如果不能留在single market肯定会有一大批企业流失的,爱尔兰因为也是英语国家很可能会吸引到投资。
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天气是硬伤呀!再好也不能去
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关键还是看英国和欧盟的谈判结果吧,目前大家都还只是保持关注并开始做第二手准备的阶段,并没有必要进行实质性行动。
爱尔兰的阴雨天相比英国还更多点,不过也看跟哪比,肯定比南部要差,和曼城差不多:P
下面是伦敦,曼城,都柏林三地的天气统计比较:
http://www.holiday-weather.com/london/averages/
http://www.holiday-weather.com/manchester/averages/
http://www.holiday-weather.com/dublin/averages/
简而言之,伦敦的平均气温晴天数量都是最高的。曼城明显要少,都柏林比曼城还要稍微差一点不过差别不是很大。
所以都柏林的天气和北英格兰应该是差不多的。
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就算UK退出single market,Dublin也很难成为赢家,政治的角力也会优先Paris and Frankruft。
个人认为不会退出single market的,也就打打嘴仗而已:cn15:
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As an act of revenge, EU might ‘help’ Ireland. But that means a large initial investment, which EU doesn’t have, or won’t have… Besides, a see-saw battle is not going to help EU either, as itself is also struggling at the moment.
I have been to Dublin, which is lovely itself. Don’t know very much outside Dublin, but as far as I know, not so good. A lot of factors will be involved if companies were to move to Ireland. For example,
First, the infrastructure needs HUGE improvements. Where is the money from? And how long does it take? Even the physical infrastructure is ready soon, is the human capital able to cope?
Second, companies need to justify their reallocation costs, which is BEYOND HUGE. In a lot of cases, the destination needs to provide some sorts of ‘compensations’. Can Ireland do that?
Third, do people want to move? Would you want to move to Ireland knowing the infrastructure is not up to scratch, that your kids might not have a good school to go to, and etc? Bear in mind, the moving involves lot of families, not only one that you can simply enroll in a good local private school. Living in Dublin is quite expensive, too. Oh, as some mentioned, the weather is not better either.
Besides, IF the UK government performs, a fair negotiation with EU and policies like lower Corporation Tax (of course, not only this) should give London a larger chance to keep those big companies. Even not, I think other big European cities still have more chances than Dublin.
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记得知乎上有一个问题就是这个,当时的高票答案是爱尔兰作为欧洲簿记中心还是不错的。但是其他业务要么有其他城市抢,要么欧洲先天不足,找不出代替的。正如拉美的金融中心其实是纽约。欧洲的金融中心变成欧盟外的城市也很有可能。至于说金融业之外的行业。在金融的大潮面前,英国的市场已经显得小了。很多行业被挤出,包括事关国计民生的行业。那么,爱尔兰的市场容量,能容得下多少变化呢?
不论是英国人还是欧洲人,都没明白自己的真正位置。不过这样也不是一天两天了。且看以后的下场。
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