英国论坛
Scottish independence: pound could drop 10% in value
Currency suffered worst week in more than a year and lead for yes campaign could accelerate slide
Scottish independence is expected to knock up to 10% off the value of sterling, taking it back to levels last seen when Britain was in recession.
Nervous traders have already begun to sell the pound in response to narrowing polls. The currency suffered its worst week in more than a year last week. Analysts said on Sunday that a lead for the yes campaign was only going to accelerate the slide.
Howard Archer, chief economist at the consultancy IHS Global Insight, said: “Sterling will highly likely remain vulnerable now until the referendum on 18 September. Just how difficult the pound’s coming week will be depends on what polls show over the coming days.”
Fears that not only Scotland but also England, Wales and Northern Ireland will suffer from several years of uncertainty have surfaced in recent weeks in response to narrowing polls.
Negotiations over a split, with the focus on Scotland’s use of the pound, are expected to take several years and lead to much uncertainty in the business community on both sides of the border.
Further details from the chancellor George Osborne on the extra tax and spending powers of a Scottish parliament following a no vote could steady the currency, though only if the polls show “devo max” has the potential to wins back votes from the yes campaign.
For much of July the pound traded higher than $1.70, but it has since fallen back to nearer $1.63. Another 10-cent fall is expected if a yes vote becomes likely.
Rob Wood, chief UK economist at Berenberg bank, said that like many in the City he was confident a deal could be reached in the event of a yes vote, but the pain for both sides could be considerable.
Referring to comments by Standard Life and Royal Bank of Scotland bosses, he said: "Some financial firms may move headquarters and parts of their business south.
“Long-term, Scotland would be forced into austerity. For the rest of the UK, losing relatively pro-EU Scotland would raise the risk of ‘Brexit’ from the EU as well as questions what it could mean for the outcome of the May 2015 general election,” he said.
再过几天就见分晓了~
女王也千万别放松对它的统治 …
让英格兰在小一点吧 小一点吧 一点吧 点吧 吧！
~。~
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补充今日外汇牌价：
1 British Pound Sterling equals
9.94 Chinese Yuan
~。~
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. Great Britain becomes little Britain
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lz觉得还会再跌么？
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感觉楼上有几位幸灾乐祸哦
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没有了对苏格兰每年的巨额补贴，过不久英镑就会反弹，各位的期望昙花一现
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独立了？
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已经这么小的国家了, 还折腾。。。岛民心态{:5_129:}
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Crazy!
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赶紧让他们独立吧
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苏格兰银行有本事自己挺着。。。
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说实话，Salmond一直在混淆概念，强行用没有联合货币协议的英镑和有货币协议的英镑是天壤之别，但Darling没有把握机会去解释清楚，导致那些dreamer到现在还在被误导认为货币不是大问题。
比较清醒的其实是那些pensioner，他们多数都是倾向于稳定不变，毕竟不变的话，他们在银行里面的几十几百K存款在未来的预期值还是基本稳定的，变了天的话，缩水缩多少谁也不知道。
YES了的话，LabDemCon咬紧牙关不签货币联盟协议，或者先在英格兰范围内进行公投，因为签的话就涉及到可能需要用英格兰纳税人的钱去给苏格兰人擦屁股堵窟窿，如果苏格兰强行用英镑但没有强有力自己的央行，而且拒绝承担应承担的政府外债的话，那就是立国先default外债，一旦缺钱需要周转时再想从金融市场上借外债就难了，谁敢借给摆明欠债不还的啊，即使借也是狠狠的高利贷啊。而且一旦资金周转不灵，首先需要被砍的就是不盈利干花钱的庞大臃肿的public sector。当然英格兰这边估计也会比较热闹，保守党内部看Cameron不顺眼的grassroots，整天找机会找茬的Labour和变脸比翻书快的lib dem 和人气正高涨的UKIP 肯定不会放过Cameron，无用的家伙居然首相在任4年就丢掉了半壁江山，不喷他喷谁啊。。。
此外要是YES的话，明年的大选也许都不得不推迟，因为理论上讲，所有的2015年5月份当选的苏格兰MP到了2016年3月就该全部清零了，所以…
No的话，被自己同胞扇了耳光的SNP和Salmond可以考虑洗洗睡了，苏格兰社会民众会更加意见分裂互相指责，这个烂摊子够SNP喝两壶了，然后英格兰这边逃过一劫的Labour和Ed会开始庆祝吧，毕竟要是丢了苏格兰就意味着Labour就丢了40+席位呢，丢掉了labour苏格兰大本营的Ed也自身难保了。
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不要分啊。。。。对于爱旅游的人~ 简直晴天霹雳啊！不会以后去苏格兰要签证吧。。。。
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分久必合，合久必分，曾经的日不落帝国给后代留下了很多，没有什么遗憾的。
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卡买隆还说若保守党连任再公投英国脱离欧盟。神经病啊！跟本不应该允许公投。
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