The,Earnings,Are,Here,But,Stoc finance, share, loan The Earnings Are Here, But Stock Prices Are in Front
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Bonds and money markets pay hardly anything and commodity prices look stretched. Aside from buying real estate, equities seem like the only game in town, which is why share prices are ticking higher on mediocre news. Big companies always get the headlines during earnings season, but there are a lot of small- and mid-cap businesses that are reporting impressive growth for the fourth quarter. It always makes me feel better when earnings are growing across the board, and not just because big companies are squeezing expenses. Smaller companies continue to be the engine of the economy and, even though they get little coverage, what they say matters just as much as the big companies. A lot of well-respected Wall Street veterans are musing about a big bull market developing in stocksperhaps lasting into 2013. That is a real possibility if we dont get sideswiped by big issues like sovereign debt, or war for that matter. Right now we have a very accommodative monetary policy, recovering growth in most mature economies, and robust growth in developing economies. Its actually difficult to make the case that corporate earnings wont keep growing over the next few years. And it doesnt really matter if the housing market remains in the doldrums. Thats more of a consumer issue. The growth in earnings right now is at the industrial level. I can certainly see a new bull market playing itself out, but it isnt going to be without some major corrections. In my view, were likely to get one soon. Both in equities and in commodities. Unless there was a major new shock to the system, I would go long if there was a major selloff in stock prices. Companies are running lean operations and, with price inflation starting to wiggle its way into the economy, modest amounts of revenue growth will translate quickly into major growth in earnings. We dont need a runaway economy. All corporations need is modest top-line growth and the earnings picture should be rosy for some time to come. Pull up a long-term chart on the S&P 500 Index and youll see that ominous head and shoulders pattern jump right at you. But, if you break it down, weve had that similar pattern before and the markets made out alright. Im predicting a stock market correction sometime between now and the middle of the year. Thats no big news. If we get a consolidation in shares prices instead and inflation stays moderate, then I think we have the makings of new bull market. It would pressure interest rates down the road, but stock prices would likely stay ahead of this certainty.
The,Earnings,Are,Here,But,Stoc