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The Spring Festival just the past, calm the long back half of the usual restless. Imperceptible in, the development of China's auto industry has come to this year's the second month. In 2012 for the market, I think every car person heart has its own a blueprint. The following is a reporter for the market this year some guess, not necessarily accurate to replace the author is only for reference. The information times XiaoMin articlesGuess 1Half of the sales hit 20 million unitsLast year China market sales increased 3% year-on-year only slightly, let many people feel disappointed. Half of this year the start also seems to be not optimistic, by the data shows cib from, in January 2012, special passenger car sales for 982008 vehicles, a 14.9% year-on-year drop, annulus comparing fell 19.9%. However, the relationship between January because of the Spring Festival, is also sold in reason. And from the car brand of sales data would be to the industry played a big boost, such as hyundai motor group in China in the year of the dragon is a, 1 month Beijing modern and dongfeng yueda kia total sales of 97994 vehicles.And China's data from general showed that, despite the influence by the Spring Festival holiday, gm and its joint venture enterprise January sales fell 8% compared with the same period last year, but still achieved sales of 246654 cars, a growth of 25.3% y/y December 2011, for the second high sales results in January. If this trend according to unfold, we have reason to believe, in 2012 China market sales growth above 10% as long as words, the breakthrough 20 million cars should be no problem.Guess 2Brand of Japanese bounce back strongerDue to the effects of the productivity by Japan once some can't keep up, last year, overall brand looked somewhat of a low profile. After half a year after the adjustment period, Japanese auto has gradually out of the earthquake in the haze. From 2011 years of sales to see, to dongfeng nissan, as a representative of the Japanese, car brand still showed up, not only reached 772000 units in advance of the established goal, more in order to 808588 sets of annual performance breaks through the challenge target, an increase of up to 22.3%, realize the 3 times as many as in the car DVD industry's growth and success the bicycle industry. Last year in a car, from the sales promotion of the profits to the efforts we see not hard, joint venture enterprise of Japanese car to take back the idea of "lost" is already was created.Guess 3The independent brand survival will be more difficultLast year, the independent brand of car day really not too easy, the car enterprises not only barely achieve annual task, and the overall market share was also swallowed.According to the statistics by federation in 2011, the independent brand of generalized passenger cars wholesale sales 4810196 vehicles, up to reduce 208682 vehicles; And the joint venture enterprise total sales of 9662701 vehicles, up a rise of 10.6%. In addition, the independent brand special passenger car market share to 30.7%, if not add export number, domestic sales in its narrow sense of independent brand passenger car market share has less than 30%, and the planning of the auto industry's target of 40% more instead of the gap and bigger. In 2010, the independent brand enterprise year sales volume of negative growth only 5 home, and increased to 14 home in 2011, more than 50% of the total number of independent brand enterprise, obviously, the independent brand car market to the severity of the crisis.And this seems to be the beginning of the crisis is just this year, many enterprises will be released their own joint venture car of the independent brand vehicles. For example dongfeng nissan has formally established rev. Calvin division, its first D50 models will also be sold. And just last year, the backup camera idea of GuangQi Honda S1 and SGMW precious jun 630 are good sales. In addition, last August fiat group chief executive MaErQiao within the United States out "China automobile threat theory", he said: "when China is at risk of overseas expansion car ' '....... Even assuming that China only to 10% of production for export to, also can let us in the local market risk facing huge." The plant in China seems to automobile and automobile parts in the international market day won't better. Faced with internal turmoil and for two mountains of oppression, this year the survival and development of the independent brand will face more severe tests.Guess 4Dealers merger and acquisition blusteryA data shows, in recent years the car industry is expanding constantly, but industry concentration is low, at present in the state bureau of industry and commerce registration of dealers more than 6, of which 75% is business constructions. And from China automobile circulation association of data showed that in 2010, the top enterprises in the 3.8167 million car sales, accounting for 21% of total sales of the car. In January, the ministry of commerce issued "about promote the development of circulation industry" 1025 "guidance". We hope to further improve the car circulation network. According to the plan, the car circulation industry will appear income more than the billions dealer group. "1025" period, car circulation field concentration will be further improved, and the top enterprises in the industry of retail turnover of the total amount of business than the important more than 30%, while cultivating 30 home's main business more than $10 billion worth of regional car circulation enterprises, 3 ~ 5 home more than 100 billion yuan's big car circulation enterprises.In fact, as early as in 2009, car 4 S inn collectivization trend is already under way, several large group to begin to turn the stock market to raise funds. In March 2010, dalian rise in official listing in Hong Kong, raising $367 million, created the domestic auto sales field listed precedent; In the same year the end of July, with the background of the state-owned enterprises in QiMao also lend hull into through listed at capital market success; Last April, large group successfully launched Shanghai a-share market and become the global distribution industry market value in the listed companies, the largest and most IPO or junk-rated in national Article Tags: 2012 China Market, Independent Brand Survival, Joint Venture Enterprise, 2012 China, China Market, Independent Brand, Brand Survival, Spring Festival, Total Sales, Joint Venture, Venture Enterprise, Last Year, Market Share