The,Bottom,Near,not,Already,He business, insurance The Bottom is Near if not Already Here in the Las Vegas Hous

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Home prices peaked in the Las Vegas valley in early 2007.  As the year progressed, foreclosures rose ata rapid and steady rate, but median home prices stayed relatively stable.  This was a result of home owners andinvestors who, not wishing to face the reality of a declining market, lefttheir homes on the market without lowering their listing prices, even as veryfew of them actually sold.  Inventory grewuntil the flood gates finally burst.  Sincethen, median price highs of around $300,000 at the end of 2007 have fallen atthe rate of approximately $10K per month to the current median price of near$184,000.  High foreclosure rates nationwide have created excellentbuying opportunities across the U.S. But Las Vegas is truly leading the pack. 1 in 76homes is currently in some stage of foreclosure in the Las Vegas market. (RealtyTrac)  This is more than double the amount of thenearest rival, Floridaat only 1 in 173 homes.  Arizona, California, andMichiganround out the top 5.  Of all home salesin the Las Vegasvalley in October, 86% were foreclosures or short sales. Steve Bottfeld, a real estate analyst with MarketingSolutions discusses a 3 point theory of how to gauge the bottom of a realestate market.  First, he looks at the inventoryof homes listed on the local Multiple Listing Service (MLS).  Second, he evaluates the volume of business whichis simply the number of homes being sold in the marketplace. Lastly, heconsiders the average median price of homes. Bottfeld states that once the inventory stops increasing, the volumebegins trending upward and the median price stabilizes… you have found the truebottom of the market.  From the data weare now considering for the Las Vegas valley, it appears that the elusivebottom may be right around the corner if not already here. POINT #1: INVENTORY STOPS INCREASING  Rick Shelton of ReMax & Associates and 2010 president–electof the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors (GLVAR) spoke recently at theReal Estate Insiders Club of Las Vegas and pointed out that the inventory ofhomes on the Las Vegas MLS has held steady for several months at around 22,000units.  This inventory stabilizationrepresents the first point needed for a bottom to be reached. POINT #2: VOLUME OF SALESPICKS UP DRAMATICALLY The number of units sold monthly has been increasing all yearfrom lows in late 2007.  Sales volume inNovember, 2008 was nearly double that of November, 2007.  Of course the sharp decline in home prices islargely responsible for this rise in sales. In some cases homes are selling for just 35% of their inflated highs inlate 2006.  As an example, I just put anoffer in on a home for one of my investor clients at $96,000.  The home sold in July of 2006 for $300,000 asis now listed for only $109,000.  Even atcurrent full asking price, this house is selling for just 37% of its 2006value.  You can read in the paper that Las Vegas has experienceda 30% drop in home values, but I can personally attest to the fact that in somecases we are looking at a 70% decrease. With prices adjusting this low, it is no wonder that the volume isstarting to pick up.   POINT #3: DROPS IN MEDIAN SALESPRICE SLOW TO A CRAWL After dropping nearly $10,000per month for the last year, home prices fell only about $2800 last month,landing near a $184,000 average median price. This change in price decline is significant and may indicate that thebottom is only a couple of thousand dollars away.  As the three elements necessary torecognizing the bottom of a market take shape, the savvy investor realizes thatnow is the time to be buying these low priced homes. Investor money that has sat on the sidelines is now flowingback into the market to snatch up the homes lost by other, less savvy investorsand owner occupants who could not afford the homes they purchased at thoseinflated levels.  Many of these recenttransactions are cash purchases as investors forgo the credit crunch andlending melt down entirely.   The keyturning point for these investors to reenter the market came as homes in Las Vegas once againreached a price point where they could cash flow as rentals.  Cash flow can be simply defined as the pointat which the income (rent) from the property exceeds the costs of ownership (mortgage,taxes, insurance, property management, and maintenance etc.)   Anyone that is looking to buy a home in Las Vegas should note that the timing may notget better than this.  Interest rates areat historic lows in the 5 ½ % range. Even the national builders are getting into the game to compete againstthe foreclosures.  Melissa  Schmidtberger of Richmond American Homes in Las Vegas is promoting a 4 ½ % 30 year fixed mortgagespecial on homes starting from $139,000. I never thought we would see national builders building again at levelsunder $100 a square foot… but they are.Over 18 builders, both local and national, have homesstarting under $100 per square foot. With the government offering first time buyers tax credits up to $7500and mortgages under 5%, it is actually cheaper to own than to rent.  It also appears that new home prices have alsoreached a bottom as only 399 building permits for new homes were issued inOctober.  This is the lowest level indecades.  I am actually quite surprised that more owneroccupants, second home buyers, vacation home seekers, and baby boomers lookingto retire are not already in this market buying homes at 35 cents on thedollar.  The people have known for thelast year that we’ve been in a recession, but it took the government thatentire time to realize it and “officially” report it.  The same will be true of the bottom of thisreal estate market.  If we wait until thenews reports say that the bottom has been reached (or was reached a year ago)we will be paying a lot more for the foreclosure we could be buying now.  “Buy when the blood is running in thestreets.”  Now is the time.