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As I write this, the United States congress is preparing a bailoutresponse of some kind for the US economy. If I can put aside my normal cynicism, I can allow myself to believe thatthe confluence of the greatest financial opinions should result in a solutionthat will sustain the US and world economies until the market straightens allthis out. Iveheard a lot of propositions, but the one I like most is the idea of not having the US government buy the 700 billion of bad debt, but to havethem guarantee the debt (or the notes created to pay that debt) at some laterdate. The difficulty there is to establish an actual value for the depletedassets. But assuming a number can be arrived at, these bad debts can bepackaged and sold and a future value could be guaranteed by the Federalgovernment at a future maturity date. Kind of like an FDIC situation. Iprefer that to any solution that requires the US to borrow more money from theinternational community (read oil countries and China). We have already startedto see the hints of that foreign influence on US policy. It has been reportedelsewhere that the US was reluctant to publicly chastise the Chinese abouthuman rights issues because they had recently lent several billion dollars toshore up US markets. Ditto theDarfur situation. It would havedispleased the Chinese government if the US had come down too stronglyagainst a government supported by the Chinese. There are many out there more cynical than I who believethat the Saudis were consulted every step of the way before Bush attacked Iraq.The billions the Arabs have invested in the US makes the Chinese investmentlook like pocket change. I had this conversation recently with a client I met throughBlue Water Partners. He doubted that influence was being used as I describedit. I proposed that if he had ahouse that needed renovations, and he did not have the money to make theserenovations and I agreed to foot the bill, did he not think that I would have asay in what he did with that house in the future? I dont know why people thinkmoney lending governments somehow loose that human element of greed, or atleast, quid pro quo. Having the government back the value of the packaged noteseliminates the pressing need for capital, and the need to go with hands out tothe wealthy oil countries of the world.
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